The odds that I would achieve a perfect score on the Australian / NZ English competition in intermediate school?
The odds that I would have basically just the right amount of money to round off my RTW trip by the end of it?
The odds that Spud would have severe cow’s milk protein intolerance (CMPI) yet tolerate goat’s milk fairly well? (The numbers for this are supposedly really low… but I wonder, how accurate can these stats really be, and how are they calculated?)
And if we apply this thinking, we can wield and deploy it either way.
Believing we can beat the odds. Time the market. Be a little delusional in betting on ourselves.
Or believing there’s no point even trying. Stopping before we start. Writing it off with a defeatist sigh.
Look: maybe you WILL be the exception to the rule. What if it’s your destiny? What if the gamble pays off?
You can do your bit to reduce risk. To mitigate and anticipate headwinds and hurdles. Weigh the pros and cons. Consider the options to improve your odds of success. Try to tip the scales in your favour, weighting them towards triumph.
But let it be an informed decision. Take the time to discern, to decide just when it’s wise to bet on yourself and when to play it safe. Exactly how much you stand to gain, vs how much might be lost – the potential upside vs downside.
Consider the value. The net return, against the raw odds – as Annie Duke puts it in Quit, the expected value. What would beating the odds really mean? And truly, what is the likelihood?
Maybe if there’s a high risk of losing it all, you can design a lower risk bet, an MVP venture, something more experimental and incremental.
Low risk, high gain – that’s the holy grail.
But we’re mostly operating in the grey zone, with uncertainty about payoffs.
Annie Duke points out that you will gain new information as you act. Valuable details. Once you move, more will reveal itself.
I’ve been experiencing this a lot lately. It’s like opening up your field of vision. Rounding a corner. When you’re stuck in what I call the SWIRL – that swirly place where thoughts are rattling around your head, you can’t quite seem to grab onto any of them, you’re going in circles and treading water – the only way out is to take a concrete, tangible step. Commit to making a real move. You can always walk it back or change course. But you need to dial up the clarity available to you by making a move, and changing your viewpoint and horizon.
We have to constantly make choices without knowing the full picture. Keep stepping in the direction you want to take, and adapt as you go. That’s how you position yourself to take advantage of the odds.
I totally understand what you reference as the swirl. I drive myself crazy sometimes being stuck there for too long. My sister is so different in that she refuses to get caught in it. Maybe it’s her strength to make decisions easily and take action quickly as a result. I tend to deeply analyze things and need to ponder things for a long time before making decisions and taking action. It can be good in some circumstances. But most of the time it’s unproductive and can get frustrating because too many other things pile up. At least by the time I make a decision I feel confident about my choice.
It’s so hard for people like us to imagine doing life the way your sister does!